Advanced Rail Transit Equipment: Pioneer of Chinese path to modernization
发布时间：
2023-11-10
1、 Rail transit: infrastructure supporting economy, the Belt and Road expanding the industry1.1 Domestic infrastructure perspective: Rail transit is an important lever for infrastructure to support th
1、 Rail transit: infrastructure supporting economy, the Belt and Road expanding the industry
1.1 Domestic infrastructure perspective: Rail transit is an important lever for infrastructure to support the economy
The broad definition of rail transit generally includes railways (high-speed rail, ordinary rail), as well as urban (intercity) rail transit (subway, light rail, tram, etc.); The urban rail transit association's statistics only include urban rail transit, which is a narrow definition of rail transit. This article will study the position of railways and urban rail transit in infrastructure investment based on a broad perspective of rail transit, and sort out the upstream and downstream industrial chains and industry trends.
Rail transit investment: trillion level market, contributing 6% to infrastructure investment in 2022
Currently, with weak real estate investment and weak recovery in the manufacturing industry, infrastructure may become an important lever to support the economy. Infrastructure, real estate and manufacturing investment are three core components of fixed assets investment (FAI). From a long-term perspective, the proportion of infrastructure investment has increased the most significantly since 2013; In the short term, the growth rate of real estate investment has significantly declined since April 2022. Since August 2022, the cumulative year-on-year growth rate of infrastructure investment has remained above 10%, gradually leading the growth rate of manufacturing investment. With the expectation of stable economic growth, infrastructure is expected to become an important lever for sustained economic support.
The investment in transportation, warehousing, and postal industries accounts for about 35% of infrastructure investment and holds a crucial position. Since May 2022, the investment growth rate in transportation, warehousing, and postal industries has been relatively low, while the investment growth rate in electricity and other industries has continued to rise. With the gradual implementation of medium - and long-term plans and long-term prospects in the fields of railways and urban rail transit, there is ample room for development in this field, which is expected to drive the overall investment growth rate of transportation and other sectors to increase.
From 2020 to 2022, the growth rate of railway and urban rail investment continued to decline, and since 2023, there has been a significant increase in the growth rate of national railway investment. Since 2015, railway investment has entered a plateau period (with an annual investment amount of around 800 billion yuan), and the decline has continued to expand from 2020 to 2022; As of 2022, railway investment has decreased by 5.07% year-on-year to 710.9 billion yuan. In the first half of 2023, the national railway investment was 304.9 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.87%, and the growth rate showed a significant upward trend. After sustained rapid growth from 2011 to 2020, urban rail investment has shown a significant decline since 2021, with a year-on-year decline of 7.10% to 544.397 billion yuan in 2022; Since 2023, urban rail investment, mainly focused on subways, may achieve growth improvement at a low base.
Proportion analysis: Taking 2022 as an example, China's fixed assets investment (FAI) completed 57.21 trillion yuan. According to the amount of infrastructure investment in 2017 and the subsequent year-on-year growth, it can be calculated that the infrastructure investment in 2022 will be about 21 trillion yuan, accounting for 36.77% of the FAI. In 2022, the total investment in railways and urban rail transit reached 1.26 trillion yuan, accounting for 6.0% of infrastructure investment and a decrease of 1.1 pct compared to 2021.
Railway: Target operating mileage of 200000 kilometers by 2035, with sufficient long-term construction space
Railways belong to the category of strong planning, and the annual operating mileage targets have been basically achieved. Based on the comprehensive reference to the "Medium - and Long Term Railway Network Plan" (adjusted in 2004, 2008, 2016, and revised) and the "Twelfth Five Year Plan" for railway development, the target operating mileage of China's railways at the end of 2005, 2010, and 2015 was 75000, 90000, and 120000 kilometers respectively, with actual mileage reaching 754, 912, and 12100 kilometers, all of which were successfully completed. At the end of 2020, the operating mileage of railways reached 146300 kilometers, which is lower than the target of 150000 kilometers for the 13th Five Year Plan; But the operating mileage of high-speed rail has reached 37900 kilometers, far exceeding the target of 30000 kilometers, reflecting the high-quality development of the railway industry. The target for China's railway operating mileage in 2025 is 165000 kilometers, with high-speed rail reaching 50000 kilometers; By 2035, the target operating mileage of railways and high-speed railways will reach 200000 kilometers and 70000 kilometers respectively, with sufficient long-term construction space. The proportion of high-speed railway mileage is expected to increase from 25.9% in 2020 to 35% by 2035. From an incremental perspective, the target for new operating mileage of railways and high-speed railways during the 14th Five Year Plan period is expected to reach 18700 kilometers and 12100 kilometers, which is slightly lower than the peak construction period of the 12th Five Year Plan and the 13th Five Year Plan.
The target for annual average new railway operating mileage from 2023 to 2025 is nearly 3400 kilometers, and railway investment in 2023 is expected to exceed the central level of the target for the next three years. From 2021 to 2022, the total number of new railway lines put into operation in China was 4208 and 4100 kilometers, with an additional operating mileage of 4439.35 kilometers in 2021. Assuming that all new railway lines put into operation in 2022 are included in the annual new operating mileage, the cumulative target for new operating mileage between 2023 and 2025 is 1.02 (=1.87-0.44-0.41) million kilometers, with an average annual target for new railway operating mileage of nearly 3400 kilometers. Due to the long construction period of the railway, the mileage of newly put into operation lines in that year cannot correspond one-to-one with the investment completion amount. Based on the 5-year moving average, the unit investment of the railway is around 150 million yuan/kilometer. From this, it can be inferred that the average annual investment target for railways from 2023 to 2025 is at least 510 billion yuan. In the first half of 2023, China's railway investment reached 304.9 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.87%; In the first half of the year, railway investment has approached 60% of the estimated annual target. Over the years, railway investment in the second half of the year has accelerated compared to the first half, so it is highly likely to exceed the target central level of 510 billion yuan in 2023.
Urban rail: By the end of the 14th Five Year Plan, the operating mileage of urban rail may approach 13000 kilometers, with a cumulative growth target of 26% over the next three years
In 2022, the operating length of urban rail in China exceeded 10000 kilometers for the first time, and the proportion of extension lines increased. The length of urban rail operation lines in China has been increasing year by year, reaching 10287.45 kilometers by 2022, with subway accounting for 77.84%. In 2022, the newly added operating length of urban rail transit was 1080.63 kilometers, a year-on-year decrease of 12.65%, which is higher than the investment standard. In 2022, the number of newly added operating lines decreased by 14 to 25 compared to the same period last year, but the extension and follow-up sections increased by 2 to 25 sections against the trend. With the growth of urban rail network stock, the construction of extension lines will also increase synchronously, partially offsetting the decrease in new lines.
In the past 10 years, the number of cities operating urban rail has been increasing year by year, and in the next 5 years, subway operations may mainly focus on existing cities. In 2022, the number of urban rail transit operating cities in China reached 55, an increase of 5 compared to the same period last year; Among them, there are 41 subway operating cities, an increase of 1 compared to the same period last year (Nantong). From the time distribution of newly added subway operating cities, 2016 and 2019 were the peak periods for the opening of new urban subways. The construction plan for Nantong Rail Transit was approved in 2014, and construction began at the end of 2017. Metro Line 1 was opened in November 2022; It took 8 years from planning to the opening of the subway, with a construction period of 5 years. As of 2022, except for Baotou (planned in 2016, which has not yet started construction), all approved cities for subway planning have opened and operated subways. Considering that there have been no newly approved cities for subway planning in the past 5 years, and the construction period of the approved cities is at least 5 years, it is expected that subway operations will mainly focus on existing operating cities in the next 5 years.
From 2019 to 2022, the feasibility study approval investment for urban rail construction projects has entered a stock era of 4.5-4.6 trillion yuan. In 2022, the approved investment for the feasibility study of ongoing projects is 4.62 trillion yuan, with a total length of 6350.55 kilometers of under construction lines and obvious stock characteristics. The newly planned investment amount significantly decreased from 2021 to 2022, with approximately 260 billion yuan in 2022, only reaching 56% of 2019. However, compared to 2021, it has slightly recovered, with a year-on-year increase of 16.41%. Considering that the completed investment in urban rail in China has remained at 500-600 billion yuan in the past two years, excluding the completed amount in 2022, the existing projects can still meet the needs of 7-8 years, and there is no long-term market space.
According to the prediction of the China Urban Rail Transit Association, it is expected that urban rail transit will still be in a relatively stable and rapid development period in the next three years after the 14th Five Year Plan. According to existing data, the scale of urban rail transit operation lines by the end of the 14th Five Year Plan will be close to 13000 kilometers, and the number of operating cities is expected to exceed 60. As a result, the average length of newly added operating lines is expected to reach 904 kilometers per year from 2023 to 2025, which is higher than the level of 2018 and before, lower than the peak period of new investment and operation from 2020 to 2021, and close to the level of 2019 and 2022. Looking at cities, the total operating mileage of urban rail in the top 10 cities in 2022 is 5690.87 kilometers, accounting for 55.32% of the total mileage in the country; The total target of urban rail operation mileage for the top 10 cities in 2025 is 6957 kilometers, with a cumulative growth target of 22.25% over three years, which is lower than the cumulative growth target corresponding to the estimated national urban rail operation mileage for 2025 by the China Urban Rail Transit Association (26.37%). However, considering that cities with a relatively late start in urban rail operation generally have higher growth targets in the 14th Five Year Plan, it is expected to drive the national growth target higher than the Top 10 cities. The operational mileage targets of urban rail transit are mostly "binding" indicators rather than "expected" indicators. It is clear that the key cities that have released the "14th Five Year Plan" for urban rail transit will provide strong support for achieving the national operational mileage targets.
Transportation volume: After caliber adjustment, there is a scissor difference in the year-on-year growth rate of railway passenger and freight transportation in the current month
Railway passenger volume: The railway passenger volume was significantly impacted in 2020 and 2022, and showed a low recovery trend in the following year. From January to May 2023, the cumulative passenger volume of China's railways reached 1.444 billion, a decrease of 1.56% compared to the same period in 2019; Among them, the monthly growth rate from January to May was 16.70%, -6.23%,+0.64%,+7.74%, and+5.71%, respectively, compared to the same period in 2019. The monthly growth rate quickly turned positive from negative.
Railway freight volume: The impact on railway freight volume in 2020 and 2022 was significantly smaller than that on passenger volume. From January to May 2023, the cumulative railway freight volume in China reached 2.07 billion tons, a significant increase of 21.02% compared to the same period in 2019; Compared to the same period in 2019, the single month from January to May has increased by 11.24%,+31.74%,+27.05%,+22.04%, and+15.27%, respectively. Due to the relatively small impact on railway freight volume in the past three years, it is also statistically significant compared to the same period in 2022. The cumulative year-on-year growth of railway freight volume from January to May 2023 was about 1.04%, with January to May showing a year-on-year increase of -0.94%,+6.84%,+3.83%, -1.78%, and -2.15%, respectively. Since April, the monthly growth rate has once again turned negative.
Comparison of growth rates: There is a scissor difference in the year-on-year growth rate of railway passenger transportation and freight transportation in the current month. We believe that the comparison between the growth rate of railway passenger transportation in 2023 compared to the same period in 2019 and the year-on-year growth rate of railway freight transportation in 2023 (2022) is more meaningful. The overall growth rate of passenger transportation is gradually recovering, while the growth rate of freight transportation is showing signs of turning negative again. This not only indicates that the fundamentals of railway passenger transportation are better than freight transportation, but also reflects that the real economy is under more pressure compared to tourism travel.
1.2 the Belt and Road: Going abroad, the industry is expected to continue expanding
Investment along the route: reaching a historic high in 2021, with strong demand for infrastructure development
In 2021, China's investment in countries along the "the Belt and Road" will hit a new record. In 2021, China's investment in countries along the "the Belt and Road" will exceed 24.15 billion US dollars, up 7.14% year on year, accounting for 13.5% of the total outbound investment flow of the year. By 2021, more than 11000 overseas enterprises have been set up along the "the Belt and Road", accounting for about 1/4 of the total number of Chinese overseas enterprises; It involves 18 major categories of industries in the national economy, mainly flowing into manufacturing, wholesale and retail, construction, leasing and business services, production and supply of electricity/heat/gas and water, transportation/warehousing, and postal services. The investment mainly flows to countries such as Singapore, Indonesia, Vietnam, Thailand, Malaysia, Laos, United Arab Emirates, Kazakhstan, Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, etc. From 2013 to 2021, China's cumulative direct investment in countries along the Belt and Road was 164 billion US dollars. At the end of 2021, the stock was 213.84 billion US dollars, accounting for 7.7% of the total outbound investment stock. The top 10 countries in the stock were Singapore, Indonesia, Vietnam, the Russian Federation, Malaysia, Laos, Thailand, the United Arab Emirates, Kazakhstan, and Pakistan.
In 2023, both the infrastructure development index and the development demand index of the "the Belt and Road" countries will rise. The general index of infrastructure development of countries jointly built along the "the Belt and Road" has risen from 116 in 2014 to 121 in 2018; In 2020, there was a significant decline in the impact of global public health events, followed by three consecutive years of steady improvement. Due to the impact of the Federal Reserve's interest rate hikes and global inflation on development costs, the index has not yet recovered to the level of 2018-2019. In terms of development demand index, in 2023, the demand for infrastructure development of countries along the the Belt and Road will grow rapidly, exceeding the level of 2018-2019. Countries have formulated large-scale policies to support infrastructure construction and energy transformation, further unleashing development needs.
Engineering contracting along the route: Transportation construction is expected to account for 1/4 of the total, and overseas orders from central enterprises in construction have significantly rebounded
In 2022, China will sign new contracts for projects contracted by countries along the "the Belt and Road", amounting to US $129.6 billion. Affected by global public health events in 2020-2022, China's newly signed engineering contracts and completed turnover to countries along the "the Belt and Road" continued to decline. The amount of contracts signed in this region dropped from $154.9 billion in 2019 to $129.6 billion in 2022, accounting for 51.20% of the total newly signed contracts of China's foreign contracting projects in the same period from 59.50%, with year-on-year growth rates of -8.67%, -5.25% and -3.30% respectively; The completed turnover decreased from $98 billion in 2019 to $84.9 billion in 2022, accounting for a stable proportion of 55% of the total external turnover
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